【作者】 吴伟华；

【导师】 夏友富；

【作者基本信息】 对外经济贸易大学 ， 产业经济学， 2021， 博士

【摘要】 产业跨境转移是经济全球化发展的重要内容,也是经济学研究重点关注的领域之一。改革开放后,中国东部沿海地区承接了大量制造业转移,通过不断嵌入全球产业链价值链,成为国际分工体系的重要组成部分,逐渐发展成为全球第一制造大国和货物贸易大国。随着经济的快速发展,中国劳动力成本快速上升、环境压力加大、东部部分地区土地愈加稀缺,“经济发展进入新常态”,中国制造业也面临新的发展瓶颈。一方面,越南、墨西哥、印度等新兴经济体加大承接劳动密集型产业力度,形成对中国低端制造业的替代;同时,美国、法国、日本等发达经济体实施“再工业化”、“制造业回流”等政策,中国制造业产业发展面临“两头挤压”的困境,特别是对中国劳动密集型产业而言,若不能实现产业转型升级,则面临快速发展的新兴经济体的巨大压力;另一方面,中国传统劳动密集型产业长期依赖“两头在外”的“接单-出口”模式,不掌握产品的研发设计和国际市场营销渠道,容易产生“路径依赖”、并逐渐形成“低端锁定”的不利局面。2018年美国对中国发动的贸易战以及2020年初爆发的新冠肺炎疫情,更对全球产业链、供应链产生了复杂影响,全球产业布局和国际分工体系面临新一轮的调整。一些劳动密集型产业,如纺织服装、制鞋等,也已经出现了成规模向东南亚等海外地区转移的迹象。在这一背景下,中国劳动密集型制造业将何去何从,成为了国内政、学、产等各方面关注的焦点之一。一种观点认为,按照赤松要的雁形理论(the flying-geese model),劳动密集型产业的这种转移是必然趋势,中国国内已经到了产业转型升级的阶段,处于中低端的劳动密集型产业应该适度向外转移,以便腾笼换鸟,推动国内产业向全球价值链中高端跃升。另一种观点则认为,这些劳动密集型产业仍是中国的重要支柱产业,在就业、税收、外贸进出口等方面发挥重要作用,我国仍有承接劳动密集型产业的空间和比较优势,应防止劳动密集型产业过快向海外转移,避免国内出现“产业空心化”的风险,要力促传统密集型产业留在中国。因此,本文将中国传统优势的劳动密集型产业对外跨境转移和产业转型升级作为研究主题,在考察中国传统优势的劳动密集型产业跨境转移和转型升级共存情况的基础上,分析产业跨境转移对国内产业转型升级的影响,讨论中国劳动密集型产业转型升级的路径和策略。本文的主要研究思路和内容如下:首先是研究背景、研究目的等引言,以及理论基础与文献综述,明确本文的研究对象为纺织业等中国6个劳动密集型产业,系统梳理已有关于产业转移和转型升级的理论和文献,对相关研究进行了述评。然后,本文较为系统地对中国6个代表性劳动密集型产业的跨境转移和转型升级情况进行分析。在产业转移方面,通过贸易份额、对外直接投资流量、基于投入产出框架的产业转移价值量等三种指标,衡量产业跨境转移情况;在产业转型升级方面,从过程升级、产品升级、功能升级、产业链升级等四个方面,分析产业转型升级情况,并通过非竞争型投入产出模型对6个产业的贸易增加值率进行测算,以反映产业转型升级的总体趋势。在此基础上,本文通过实证分析,从产业数据、省际面板数据和企业数据三个层面分别构建了实证模型,检验了产业跨境转移对产业转型升级的影响。然后,通过分析相关企业案例,进一步验证了中国传统劳动密集型产业对外的跨境转移可以让劳动密集型产业实现产业转型升级。本文以实证分析为基础,结合现有研究成果,提出了“四位一体”的劳动密集型产业转型升级框架,认为应通过培育和发展国内市场、推动外贸高质量发展、提高引资水平、积极有序对外投资等四个方面促进中国劳动密集型产业转型升级,并分析了相关转型升级策略。最后,本文根据所得研究结论,提出了中国传统劳动密集型产业跨境转移和产业转型升级过程中的政策建议。本文的主要结论是:第一,受国内外环境变化影响,中国传统劳动密集型产业正在发生跨境转移。从贸易份额、对外直接投资和价值量测算等方面的数据分析来看,2014年前后中国传统劳动密集型产业跨境转移开始出现加速。与其他国际产业转移的历史比较,中国劳动密集型产业跨境转移的发生时间较晚、规模相对较小。第二,中国劳动密集型产业转型升级取得明显成效。通过从过程升级、产品升级、功能升级、产业链升级等四个方面考察中国劳动密集型产业转型升级情况,发现中国6个代表性劳动密集型产业转型升级取得明显进展。第三,中国传统劳动密集型产业对外转移对国内产业转型升级起到了正面的效应。通过对中国产业层面的面板数据分析,传统劳动密集型产业对外跨境转移对产业转型升级的影响得到了验证,中国劳动密集型产业对外跨境转移与国内产业转型升级之间存在着正向关系。对中国省际层面的纺织业面板数据的分析,进一步验证了劳动密集产业跨境转移与我国产业转型升级之间的正向关系。对6个劳动密集型行业所包含的企业数据实证分析发现,企业的对外投资能够通过缓解企业的过度投资问题,从而达到提升企业投资效率的作用,说明从企业数据看,产业转移同样对产业转型升级具有正面影响。第四,中国劳动密集型产业可通过“四位一体”路径进行转型升级。在构建双循环发展格局和在国际分工体系“共轭环流”中的大背景下,中国劳动密集型产业正处“国内循环与国际循环”、“中国-发达国家循环与中国-发展中国家循环”两个双循环的交汇点。在这样的开放经济条件下,中国劳动密集型产业转型升级与推动国内消费市场健康发展、外贸高质量发展、高水平吸引外资、积极有序对外投资是四位一体的。根据研究,本文提出六点政策建议:一是尽可能维持一定的劳动密集型产业规模。根据文中实证分析,产业规模对产业转型升级具有正面意义。因此,本文认为,在国内比较优势逐渐削弱的条件下,还应通过向中西部转移、减税降费维持劳动密集型产业相对竞争优势,在国内维持一定规模的劳动密集型产业。二是依托国内市场促进产业转型升级。实证研究也得到了地区经济发展水平对产业升级具有显著影响的结果。未来,中国劳动密集型产业要维持发展势头,还要进一步发挥国内需求的作用,依托国内庞大需求的潜力和对消费升级的动力,有效推进劳动密集型产业转型升级。三是支持劳动密集型企业有序走出去。本文通过分析认为,产业的部分对外转移有助于国内产业转型升级。未来,中国劳动密集型产业应积极融入“一带一路”建设、充分利用中国自贸协定安排,逐步构建以国内产业为主体的区域性产业链、供应链、价值链体系,形成劳动密集型产业转型升级与产业对外转移相互促进。四是加强劳动密集型产业研发投入。在文中的实证分析中已经验证,中国劳动密集型产业的技术升级对产业转型升级具有显著影响。基于此,中国劳动密集型产业应立足自主研发相关技术进行转型升级,需要从顶层设计上为劳动密集型产业技术创新提供更多政策支持,比如对劳动密集型产业的企业进行研发投入,提供与高新技术企业同等的税收优惠政策等。五是强化进出口贸易高质量发展导向。要让劳动密集型企业在国际竞争中实现以质取胜,摆脱长期以来以价格竞争抢占国际市场的依赖,重点是推动劳动密集型产品高端化、生产智能化发展。六是通过高水平外商投资吸引更多高端国际生产要素流入。外资企业可以成为劳动密集型产业的国际高端设计、营销人才向中国聚集的桥梁和纽带,通过引入高水平外资企业,可以吸引高端国际人才流入,为中国劳动密集型产业转型升级提供动能。本文的创新点在于:第一,将产业跨境转移和产业转型升级的研究推进到中观产业层面。现有关于产业转移和产业转型升级的研究主要是集中宏观的制造业层面,不少成果都是对中国制造业转移和产业结构优化的分别研究。本文从贸易份额、对外直接投资流量、基于投入产出框架的产业转移价值量等三个角度,分析了中国6个代表性劳动密集型行业的产业转移情况;又基于贸易增加值率等9个指标,利用主成分分析法构建了行业的产业转型升级指数。从中观的产业层面,较为系统地分析了中国劳动密集型产业跨境转移和转型升级的整体情况。第二,就劳动密集型产业跨境转移对产业转型升级的相互影响机制进行了探索,并对其进行了实证分析。从研究视角来看,国内外不少专家学者研究产业转移对国内产业升级的效应时,或者从宏观视角分析对外直接投资或产业转移对国内产业结构升级的影响,或者从微观视角研究企业对外直接投资行为对国内母体企业的技术溢出和生产效率提升的影响。深入到具体产业层面,研究某个或某类行业的产业转移对国内产业发展影响的研究还不多。本文探索了中国劳动密集型产业跨境转移对产业转型升级在市场扩张等四个方面效应的影响机制,并在构建产业升级指数的基础上,从中国6个代表性劳动密集型产业、纺织业省际面板数据以及企业经营数据等三个层面,分别实证检验了中国传统劳动密集型产业对外转移的转型升级效应,这使得关于产业转移对国内产业发展效应的研究更加全面、深入。第三,基于对构建新发展格局和国际分工体系“共轭环流”的两个双循环的认识,提出了中国劳动密集型产业处于两个双循环交汇点的观点,并根据这一判断认为,中国劳动密集型产业转型升级与推动国内消费市场健康发展、外贸高质量发展、高水平吸引外资、积极有序对外投资是四位一体的发展路径。在这一框架下,提出了中国劳动密集型产业的转型升级策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 The cross-border transfer of industries is an important part of the development of economic globalization,and it is also one of the important fields of economic research.After the reform and opening up,China has undertaken a large number of international transfers of manufacturing,deeply embedded in the global value chain,and has become an important part of the international manufacture,and the largest country in global trade in goods.With the rapid economic development,China’s labor costs have risen rapidly,environmental pressures have increased,and land in parts of the east has become increasingly scarce."Economic development has entered a new-normal stage." Some traditional advantageous industries,that is to say labor-intensive industries,such as textiles and garments,are showing some evidences of large-scale transfer to Southeast Asia and other places in the World.With the gradual deepening of participation in global value chains,the development of labor-intensive industries in China are also facing unprecedented bottlenecks: on the one hand,the emerging economies of Southeast Asia have replaced China with its low-cost competitive advantages while the "re-industrialization" strategies are implementing in the developed countries in Europe and America in recent years.China’s industrial development has fallen into a situation of "two-side squeeze".The trade war launched by the United States against China in 2018 and the outbreak of the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 have had a complex impact on the global industrial chain and supply chain,and the global industrial distribution is undertaking a new round of adjustment in the worldwide.Under this background,where will China’s traditional labor-internsive manufacturing industries go? It has become a focus for the China’s officials,the researchers and the industrialists.Some researchers believe the transfer of labor-intensive industries is an inevitable trend.China has reached the stage of industrial transformation and upgrading,according to Akamatsu’s flying-geese model.The labor-intensive industries in China should be appropriately shifted outwards,so as to change the cages and promote the domestic industry to leap to the high-end of the global value chain.Another point of view is that these labor-intensive industries are still China’s important pillar industries and play an important role in employment,taxation,international trade,etc.China still has the spaces and comparative advantages to undertake labor-intensive industries.Labor-intensive industries have moved outwards too quickly,which has led to "industry hollowing" in the country.We must strive to encourage traditional intensive industries to stay in China.Therefore,this dissertation takes China’s traditional labor-intensive industries’ cross-border transfer and transformation-upgrading as the subject.Based on the investigation of China’s traditional advantages of labor-intensive industries’ cross-border transfer and transformation-upgrading,it analyzes the industrial cross-border transfer’s impact on the transformation-upgrading of these industries.The contents of this dissertation are as follows: The first is the introduction of research background,research purpose,literature review and the theoretical exploration.In this section,the dissertation defined that its research objects are the six traditionally labor-intensive industries in China,and comprehensively reviewed the theoretical literature on industrial transfer and transformation-upgrading.Next,this dissertation analyzed the performance of the cross-border transfer and the transformation-upgrading of the six labor-intensive industries in China.In terms of the performance of crossborder transfer,the dissertation investigated it by the industries’ trade share in the World,foreign direct investment flow,and the value of industrial transfer based on the inputoutput framework,and regarding the performance of transformation-upgrading.And in terms of industrial transformation-upgrading,the dissertation analyzed it from the four aspects: processing upgrade,product upgrade,function upgrade,and industrial chain upgrade,and then calculated the trade value added rate of the six industries with the non-competitive input-output model to embody the overall trend of industrial transformation-upgrading.After that,the dissertation studied the impact of industrial cross-border transfer on industrial transformation-upgrading from three empirical analysis ways: one is industrial data model,another is inter-provincial panel data model while taking the textile industry as an example,and the last is enterprise data model.Then,it was further verified that the relationship between cross-border transfer and transformation-upgrading of traditional labor-intensive industries,by the relevant corporate cases analysis.Next,based on empirical analysis and combined with the previous research results,a "four-in-one" labor-intensive industrial transformationupgrading framework was proposed,which believes that to promote the transformationupgrading of China’s labor-intensive industries should be accompanied by four movements: the domestic market should be fully cultivated and developed;the foreign trade should be promoted for high-quality development;the foreign direct investment should be improved;and the outward investment should be accomplished actively and orderly.Furthermore,the dissertation provided an industrial transformation-upgrading tactics based on this framework.Finally,based on its research conclusions,this dissertation put forward policy recommendations in the process of cross-border transfer and industrial transformation-upgrading of China’s traditional labor-intensive industries.The main conclusions of this dissertation are: First,China’s traditional laborintensive industries are undergoing cross-border transfer,but they are late,small in scale and slow in speed.From the perspective of data analysis on trade share,foreign direct investment,and value-added measurement,the cross-border transfer of China’s traditional labor-intensive industries began to accelerate around 2014.Compared with the history of other international industrial transfers,the cross-border transfer of laborintensive industries in China occurred later and the scale was relatively small.There is no phenomenon shows that China’s labor-intensive industries were transferred before“becoming strong”.The second,the transformation-upgrading of China’s labor-intensive industries has achieved remarkable results.This dissertation investigated the transformationupgrading of China’s labor-intensive industries from the next four aspects: process upgrade,product upgrade,function upgrade,and industrial chain upgrade.The study found that China’s six representative labor-intensive industries have made significant progress in their transformation-upgrading.Further,based on the non-competitive input-output model(DPN),the value-added rate of export products of the six representative labor-intensive industries were estimated from 2000 to 2019.The results shown that the export value added rate of the six industries has been on an upward trend.Finally,using the principal component analysis method,this dissertation provided a comprehensive evaluation indicator for the transformation and upgrading of 6representative labor-intensive industries from 9 indicators in three aspects: industrial scale,production efficiency,and trade benefits,and calculated the comprehensive evaluation indicators from 2005 to 2018 for the 6 industries.From the data point of view,the industrial transformation-upgrading indexes of the six industries have shown a significant upward trend,indicating that while China’s labor-intensive industries were shifting outward,the domestic industrial transformation-upgrading had also achieved significant results.The third,the outward transfer of China’s traditional labor-intensive industries has had a positive effect on the transformation-upgrading for the domestic industries.The impact of the external cross-border transfer of traditional labor-intensive industries on industrial transformation and upgrading has been verified,by the empirical analysis of panel data at the industrial level in China.It was shown that there is a positive relationship between the cross-border transfer of China’s labor-intensive industries and the transformation-upgrading of domestic industries.The expansion of cross-border transfer of industries will swell the comprehensive evaluation indicators for industrial transformation and upgrading.The results of control variables,such as foreign direct investment,industry openness,and industry development level,shown that foreign direct investment and industry openness have no significant effect on the transformation-upgrading of labor-intensive industries,while the per capital industry output and technological progress have a positive impact on industrial transformationupgrading.This is generally consistent with other studies.The analysis of China’s provincial textile industry panel data further verified the positive relationship between the cross-border transfer of labor-intensive industries and China’s industrial transformation-upgrading,and the foreign direct investment did not have a significant impact on the textile industry’s transformation-upgrading.The regional human capital had an important impact on the transformation-upgrading of labor-intensive industries,indicating that the transformation-upgrading of labor-intensive industries also requires continuous development of human capital.An empirical analysis of corporate data contained in six labor-intensive industries found that corporate foreign investment can improve its investment efficiency by alleviating the problem of over investment.And the enterprises’ foreign investment can also help promote their own innovative R&D investment and output levels through technology spillover effects.The empirical analysis indicated that from the perspective of enterprise data,industrial transfer also has a positive impact on industrial transformation and upgrading.The fourth,China’s labor-intensive industries can be transformed and upgraded through the “four-in-one” path.In the context of establishing of a "dual circulation" development pattern and the “conjugate circulation” of the international division of labor system,China’s labor-intensive industries are at the intersection point of the“domestic circulation and international circulation”,and the “China-developed countries circulation and China-developing countries circulation”: they connect the domestic and foreign cycles by relying on the domestic market and factor resources to form a strong industrial manufacturing capacity,meeting the needs of the domestic market,while being fully integrated into the global division of labor system and becoming part of international producing;and in the international cycle,they connect the circulation between developed countries and developing countries through trade and investment at the same time.Under such open economic circumstances,the transformation-upgrading of China’s labor-intensive industries are “four in one” with the promotion of the healthy development of the domestic consumer market,highquality development of foreign trade,high-level foreign investment attraction,and active and orderly foreign investment.The transformation-upgrading of China’s laborintensive industries is accompanied with promoting the domestic market and international trade,attracting foreign investment and high-quality development of oversea investment.Under this analytical framework,a strategy for the transformation and upgrading of China’s labor-intensive industries was proposed,which are fostering and developing the domestic consumer market,accelerating the high-quality development of trade,further improving the level of foreign direct investment,and actively,orderly and effectively carrying out oversea investment.According to the research,this dissertation puts forward six policy recommendations: The first is to maintain a certain labor-intensive industry scale as much as possible.According to the empirical analysis of inter-provincial data in the textile industry,industrial scale has positive significance for industrial transformationupgrading.Therefore,under the condition that the comparative advantages of domestic(especially in the eastern region)of labor,land and other factor resources are gradually weakening,the relative competitive advantage of labor-intensive industries should be maintained and improved to offset the negative effects of rising labor costs and to maintain a certain scale of labor-intensive industries in the country,by promoting the labor-intensive industries transfer to the China’s central and western regions,tax reduction and enhancing the level of production automation.It is necessary not only for absorbing low grade labor force,but also for the development and further upgrading of the industry itself.The second is to rely on the domestic market to promote industrial transformationupgrading.The empirical research in chapter 5 has also shown the result that the level of regional economic development has a significant impact on industrial upgrading.In the future,the domestic demand will continually play an important role,and the China’s labor-intensive industries should rely on the promising huge domestic demand and the momentum of consumption upgrading,to effectively promote the transformationupgrading.The third is to support labor-intensive enterprises to go abroad in an orderly way.Through the dissertation’s analysis of chapter 3,at least for now,the cross-border transfer of labor-intensive industries has not caused "industry hollowing",but the partial transfer of industries can help domestic industrial transformation-upgrading.Furthermore,China’s labor-intensive industries should actively integrate into the “Belt and Road” construction,making full use of China’s free trade agreements with its trade partner.and finally,China should gradually build a regional industrial chain,supply chain,and value chain system with domestic industries as the mainstay.The fourth is to strengthen R&D investment in labor-intensive industries.The empirical analysis in this dissertation has verified that the technological upgrading of China’s labor-intensive industries has a significant impact on industrial transformationupgrading.Based on this,it is necessary to provide more policy support for laborintensive industry technological innovation from the top-level design.For example,the labor-intensive industries’ R&D investment should be provided the same preferential tax policies as high-tech enterprises.The fifth is to strengthen the high-quality development of import and export trade.It is necessary for labor-intensive enterprises to achieve quality which will help them to win in international competition and get rid of the long-term dependence on price competition to seize the international market.The key is to promote the high-level and intelligent producing of labor-intensive products such as textiles,clothing,luggage,shoes and hats.At the same time,we should work hard to deal with trade frictions,especially pay attention to the negative effects of Sino-US economic and trade frictions.we should provide more favorable conditions for the survival and development of domestic labor-intensive enterprises by way of trade aid adjustment measures.The sixth,attract more high-end international production factors inflow through high-level foreign investment.As far as industrial development is concerned,foreignfunded enterprises can still promote the transformation-upgrading of labor-intensive industries through resource effects,technology and management spillover effects,competitive demonstration effects,and collaborative development effects.For example,in terms of resource effects,foreign-funded enterprises can become a bridge for international high-end design and marketing talents in labor-intensive industries to gather in China.By introducing high-level foreign-funded enterprises,they can attract the influx of high-end international talents and provides momentum for China’s laborintensive industries’ transformation-upgrading.The innovations of this paper are probably as follows: The first,the researches on cross-border transfer of industries and industrial transformation-upgrading are advanced to the meso-level industry.The researches what is already there on industrial transfer and industrial transformation-upgrading were mainly focused on the macroscopic manufacturing level,and many of the results were the overall research on China’s manufacturing transfer and industrial structure upgrading.This dissertation analyzed the cross-border transfer of six representative labor-intensive industries in China from three perspectives: trade share,foreign direct investment flow,and industrial transfer value based on the input-output framework.It also established the industry’s industrial transformation-upgrading index based on nine indicators,using the principal component analysis method.It is believed that the dissertation provided a more systematic analysis of the cross-border transfer and transformation-upgrading of labor-intensive industries in China.The second,from the meso-level of labor-intensive industries,the impact of industrial cross-border transfer on transformation-upgrading was studied,and the impact was verified.Many experts and scholars at home and abroad are concerned about the effects of industrial transfer on the home country’s industries from different perspectives,and some of the studies analyzed from a macro level by focusing on the impact of foreign direct investment on the upgrading of home country’s industry structures,while some of the studies studied the impact on the industrial technology spillover and production efficiency of the home country from the company’s perspective.There is not much research on the impact of industrial transfer on the development of the home country’s industry from perspective of a certain industry or a certain type of industry.Based on the mechanism research,this dissertation examined the impact of transfer on the transformation-upgrading of China’s traditional laborintensive industries from two levels which are the country’s six representative laborintensive industries data and the textile industry’s inter-provincial data,and it was verified.This may contribute to the research on the industrial effects of foreign direct investment more comprehensive,scientific and accurate.The third,based on the understanding of the establishment of a "dual circulation" development pattern and the "conjugate circulation" of the international division of labor system,the view that China’s labor-intensive industries is at the intersection of the two dual cycles was proposed,which consequently believes that China’s laborintensive industries’ transformation-upgrading is “four in one” with the promotion of the healthy development of the domestic consumer market,the high-quality development of foreign trade,the high-level attraction of foreign investment,and the active and orderly foreign investment.Under this framework,tactics for the transformation-upgrading of China’s labor-intensive industries was proposed.更多还原